Cross-asset strategy · Monthly
Institutional
Macro Report September 2026
The first hike of the cycle, real yields above growth and the dollar at its fork, a consolidated read of the month through the lens of price.
Reserved research
Institutional seats only, never published, never indexed
Cross-asset strategy · Monthly
The first hike of the cycle, real yields above growth and the dollar at its fork, a consolidated read of the month through the lens of price.
What every edition covers
The structure doesn't move, which is the point: an investment team can compare one month against the last without relearning the document. Each ring shows how many of the 24 exhibits sit in that part.
Policy, rates and the real economy. The policy path, the long end, real yields against growth and the interest bill.
8 exhibitsEarnings, valuation and the return outlook. AI against the rest of the index, the multiple, hiking cycles by regime.
4 exhibitsPositioning, ownership and market structure. Breadth, the stock-yield correlation, the survey and money market assets.
4 exhibitsThe dollar, hard assets and the debasement thesis. Dollar cycles, gold against real yields, commodities and producers.
8 exhibitsWhat it does for your firm
The report isn't the product. The product is the hours it gives back and the argument it lets you defend in front of a client 6 months later.
An analyst on the payroll costs a salary and takes months to onboard. This starts the same day, and the cadence never depends on whether that person is on holiday.
Bulge bracket notes arrive with a licence you can't pass on and a whole department behind every word. Here there's 1 name attached, and it stays attached when the call is wrong.
Every adviser reads the same evidence in the same structure, so the firm stops saying 4 different things to 4 different clients in the same week.
A sample of the thinking
Not a teaser. The actual argument that ran through 24 exhibits that month, compressed to what an investment team needs to hear first. The bullish and the cautious readings are in sequence, not in conflict.
On 16 September the target range went to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023, out of a meeting priced at 50% two weeks out. Futures sit 68, 104 and 155 basis points above the 2027, 2028 and 2029 dots, so strong data lands as a hawkish surprise.
The 10-year reached 5.17%, the highest since June 2007, and the real 10-year at 2.60% sits about 100 basis points above neutral and above potential growth. Net interest absorbs about 14% of federal outlays, a level exceeded twice in 85 years.
AI infrastructure EPS grew 54% and the rest of the index ex-Energy 14%, the fastest in the series, while the P/E fell 9% to about 20x. A 5.0% earnings yield against a 5.0% 10-year leaves the equity risk premium near zero.
About 44% of S&P 500 stocks are moving against the index, against roughly 18% at the dot-com peak, with the top ten at about 40%. The stock-yield correlation is -0.38, the most negative since 1997.
The dollar index held a 15-year trendline at 99.076 through 95 basis points of hawkish repricing, then broke above 101 in the last week of the month. Gold has decoupled from real yields as central banks buy over 1,000 tonnes a year.
The shock peaks within three to six months, oil slips below $100 and the zone at 7,200-7,400 holds as a floor while AI earnings take over again.
Real yields stay above growth for two quarters or more, the 10-year heads to 6.2-6.4% and the same zone becomes a trapdoor.
Every call is dated and archived, including the ones that aged badly.
Coverage
Nothing is dropped when it gets boring and nothing is added because it's in the news. The same 13 series, on the same definitions, so one month can be compared against the last.
Sentiment & dollar
Equities & growth
Inflation & commodities
Real estate & income
Both sides, on every market, every week. A view without its counter argument is a marketing line.
Alessandro, founder and head of research
And the analyst behind it
The person who builds the model is the person who answers the email. No research department to hide behind, and no account manager in between. That's the whole reason the cohort stays small.
A standing strategy call. Your positioning, your questions, on the record.
Not a ticket queue. Urgent requests come straight to the analyst's inbox.
On request, the month's evidence reframed for your investment team.
Walked through, not just sent
A team briefing isn't a PDF read aloud. It's the same evidence taken apart on a call, with the counter argument put on the table before you have to ask for it.
Request access
Tell us what you are working on across the 13 markets. Every request is read at Macro Mornings, and the reply covers what exists, what we can build, and how long it takes.
Firms and individual investors are both welcome. If the question falls outside what we cover, we will say so.
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