Cross-asset strategy · Monthly
Institutional
Macro Report August 2026
The fiscal limit on policy, the quality of index earnings and the turn in the dollar cycle.
Reserved research
Institutional seats only, never published, never indexed
Cross-asset strategy · Monthly
The fiscal limit on policy, the quality of index earnings and the turn in the dollar cycle.
What every edition covers
The structure doesn't move, which is the point: an investment team can compare one month against the last without relearning the document. Each ring shows how many of the 24 exhibits sit in that part.
Policy, rates and the real economy. The fiscal position, the long end, what the Fed holds and what the tape expects.
7 exhibitsEarnings, valuation and the return outlook. Aggregate against median growth, revisions, the correlation regime, CAPE.
6 exhibitsPositioning, ownership and market structure. ETF flows, household equity, breadth, margin debt, the liquidity proxy.
5 exhibitsThe dollar, hard assets and the debasement thesis. Dollar cycles, gold against money supply, commodity producers.
6 exhibitsWhat it does for your firm
The report isn't the product. The product is the hours it gives back and the argument it lets you defend in front of a client 6 months later.
An analyst on the payroll costs a salary and takes months to onboard. This starts the same day, and the cadence never depends on whether that person is on holiday.
Bulge bracket notes arrive with a licence you can't pass on and a whole department behind every word. Here there's 1 name attached, and it stays attached when the call is wrong.
Every adviser reads the same evidence in the same structure, so the firm stops saying 4 different things to 4 different clients in the same week.
A sample of the thinking
Not a teaser. The actual argument that ran through 24 exhibits that month, compressed to what an investment team needs to hear first. The bullish and the cautious readings are in sequence, not in conflict.
Not by inflation. Federal debt near 120% of GDP against 31% in 1980, interest taking 21% of tax receipts against 10%, and a real policy rate near +0.3% against +8.7% in 1981.
The 30-year trades above 5.20%, the highest since 2007, on a balance sheet roughly twice as levered as 2007's. A $4bn buyback increase moved the 10-year 5bp, and it gave it back inside a day.
Q2 growth printed 50.4% against 23.1% expected, but aggregate EPS growth is 45% including mega-cap other income and 26% excluding it, against a median constituent at 12%. Consensus falls to 2% by Q2 2027.
Household equity at 232% of GDP against roughly 140% in March 2000, margin debt at 6.8% of M2 against 6.4% at the 2000 peak. Breadth at 74 and a record liquidity proxy sit against them.
The ten-year rolling change in the dollar index is -0.61, a crossing seen twice before and followed by declines of 48% and 42%. The 50-day S&P to long Treasury correlation is +43%: the hedge no longer hedges.
Breadth at 74 against 20 at the 1999 top, and a global M2 proxy at a record that fixes the liquidity backdrop into November.
A 30-year above 5.20% on 120% debt to GDP reproduces 2022, when a 60/40 book fell 17.5%.
Every call is dated and archived, including the ones that aged badly.
Coverage
Nothing is dropped when it gets boring and nothing is added because it's in the news. The same 13 series, on the same definitions, so one month can be compared against the last.
Both sides, on every market, every week. A view without its counter argument is a marketing line.
Alessandro, founder and head of research
And the analyst behind it
The person who builds the model is the person who answers the email. No research department to hide behind, and no account manager in between. That's the whole reason the cohort stays small.
A standing strategy call. Your positioning, your questions, on the record.
Not a ticket queue. Urgent requests come straight to the analyst's inbox.
On request, the month's evidence reframed for your investment team.
Walked through, not just sent
A team briefing isn't a PDF read aloud. It's the same evidence taken apart on a call, with the counter argument put on the table before you have to ask for it.
Request access
Access is by enquiry. Leave your details and we'll come back to you with the current edition and a time to talk. No sequence, no sales team, no automated follow up.