Dear Investors,
Money Introduction
I know the macro world can feel like a maze. Yields here, deficits there, currencies swinging in every direction – it’s a lot.
But if you’ve been reading Macro Mornings for a while, you already know how I think: markets aren’t chaos.
They’re a reflection of decisions, power shifts, and human behavior. And 2025? It’s turning into a year where understanding the big picture could change the game for investors like us.
This year is already setting itself apart. From what I’ve observed, 2025 isn’t just another chapter in the macro playbook – it’s a potential turning point.
Policy shifts, global realignments, and investor psychology are merging in ways that are both familiar and new.
What’s old is becoming new again: hard assets, regional economics, and debt concerns are back in focus.
But this time, the context is sharper, more digital, and emotionally charged.
So here’s what I’ve been studying, what I’m watching, and how I’m personally thinking about where capital could move next.
We’re going to dive deeper, think harder, and prepare smarter.
Let’s break it down – clearly, simply, and with the data that matters.
The Dollar Money: Still Mighty, But Cracks Are Forming
As a global macro investor, I’ve been paying close attention to what some are calling the “Mar-a-Lago Accord.”
It’s a modern echo of the 1985 Plaza Accord, when the U.S. and its allies agreed to weaken the dollar.
With Trump back in power, some analysts believe we might see a similar play – one aimed at making U.S. manufacturing competitive again.
Why? Well, the numbers speak volumes. In the 1950s, manufacturing accounted for almost 30% of U.S. GDP. Today? Just 11%.
Trump’s team thinks a cheaper dollar could help revive domestic industry. After the original Plaza Accord, the dollar dropped nearly 50% against the yen in two years.
A 10–15% drop from here isn’t out of the question.
And don’t underestimate the messaging effect. A deliberate signal that the U.S. wants a weaker dollar can shift global capital flows quickly.
Portfolio managers, sovereign wealth funds, and pension funds could all start rotating capital toward hard assets and foreign equities.
Bottom line? A falling dollar typically boosts emerging markets, commodities, and non-U.S. equities.
If you’re overexposed to the U.S., now might be a good time to look outward. A diversified currency basket isn’t just a hedge – it could become an edge.
Gold: From Safe Haven to Power Move
As someone who thinks in decades, not days, let me say it clearly: gold is on a structural uptrend.
Gold has smashed through $2,950/oz – up 25% from last year. Why? Because central banks are buying more than ever.
Over 1,200 metric tons were added to global reserves in 2024. China led the way, adding 200+ tons alone.
And in a world where sanctions can freeze assets overnight, gold is the one thing no one controls.
What’s interesting is how gold is being viewed as not just a hedge, but as a tool of independence.
Nations are increasingly turning to gold to exit the orbit of the U.S. dollar, especially as trade gets more fragmented.
But here’s the twist: gold-mining stocks are cheap. While bullion soared, mining stocks only rose 12%.
Some trade at just 10–12x earnings – half the S&P 500’s average. That’s a compelling setup.
When you overlay this with underinvestment in new mining projects and rising geopolitical instability, the supply/demand narrative becomes even more bullish.
And retail demand is rising too – Costco selling out gold bars in hours? That’s not just anecdote. That’s momentum.
My call? If gold just holds current levels, miners could outperform big. I’m long both physical gold and select miners. In my view, this is a multi-year theme.
Interest Rates: One Cycle, Many Paths on your Money
The world’s central banks are cutting – but not in sync.
The Fed trimmed rates by 75bps in 2024, settling at 4.25%. Inflation cooled from 9% in 2022 to 2.5% today, but it’s not gone.
Meanwhile, the ECB cut twice, down to 3.25%. The Bank of Japan did something rare: it hiked – to 0.25%.
What does that tell us? That monetary policy is regional again.
And for global investors, that opens doors for carry strategies, currency trades, and sovereign debt allocation.
Real yields are positive in most developed markets. That hasn’t happened in years.
It means bonds are investable again – not just as a volatility dampener but as a source of real return.
Where I’m positioned? In bonds, I favor high-quality sovereigns with falling inflation and strong currencies.
In equities, I like countries where monetary easing has room to run. This is where active investing shines.
U.S. Stocks: Leading the Race, Losing the Margin
Yes, the U.S. is still the epicenter of innovation – AI, semis, tech. The S&P 500 rose 25% in 2023 and another 12% in 2024. Incredible.
But valuations? They’re stretched. U.S. equities are trading at 25x forward earnings. Meanwhile:
- Europe trades at 14–16x.
- Japan around
As a global macro investor, I see that as a flashing light. History tells us that wide valuation gaps usually mean reversion is coming.
And while U.S. tech is elite, other regions are stepping up. Europe’s investing heavily in digital infrastructure. Japan’s corporate reforms are real.
Another thing I’m watching? The earnings yield gap between U.S. equities and bonds.
It’s narrowing. In some sectors, the 10-year Treasury now offers better risk-adjusted returns.
I’m rotating capital toward those underappreciated opportunities – still holding U.S. tech, but diversifying beyond.
The market isn’t monolithic. But the top-heavy rally is. That can’t last forever.
Debt: The Giant Elephant in the Room
Let’s talk about numbers that really matter:
- S. deficit (2024): $1.9 trillion (7.2% of GDP)
- National debt: over $35 trillion (up from $28T just a few years ago)
- Interest expense (2025 est.): $850 billion
That’s more than the entire defense budget.
This isn’t just a U.S. problem. Europe and Japan are seeing similar trends. But here’s the difference: rates are no longer zero. Debt is expensive again.
If inflation comes back or growth falters, debt sustainability becomes a headline – not just in economic journals, but in market pricing.
So what do I do? I avoid long-duration debt in countries with shaky fiscal outlooks. I favor inflation-protected bonds, gold, and equities with strong free cash flow.
This isn’t alarmism – it’s preparation. When deficits matter, the winners are those who saw it coming.
Global Trade: From One World to Many
Deglobalization isn’t a theory. It’s already happening.
Trump’s new tariffs (10–25%) on goods like autos and electronics reshaped trade overnight. In 2025:
- S. imports from Mexico rose 16% year-over-year.
- Imports from China dropped 11%.
Supply chains are moving – to India, Vietnam, Mexico, and Eastern Europe.
This is more than just tariffs. It’s a long-term shift toward regionalization.
Companies are rethinking where they manufacture, governments are subsidizing strategic industries, and the old playbook of “just-in-time” global efficiency is being replaced by “just-in-case” resilience.
Governments are also pouring money into strategic sectors. The EU plans to invest €300 billion in green energy by 2030.
The U.S. is ramping up semiconductor production. This is industrial policy – back with a vengeance.
Where I’m investing: infrastructure, defense, and industrials. These are the sectors of the new economic order. The global map of capital expenditure is being redrawn.
Currency Wars: The Dollar’s Quiet Challenger
I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again: the dollar isn’t dying – but it’s bleeding share.
Today, it holds 58% of global reserves – down from 65% a decade ago. It’s still king, but no longer unchallenged.
- 30+ countries used non-dollar currencies in trade deals last year.
- $500 million in oil trades were settled in gold or yuan just in Q1 2025.
- BRICS nations are designing their own digital currency.
China is clearly pushing forward – expanding yuan settlement lines, boosting gold reserves, and launching more bilateral trade in Asia.
Even Middle Eastern nations are flirting with non-dollar invoicing.
As a global macro investor, I see this as a long-term trend. I’m holding more assets in non-USD currencies, especially in Asia.
I’m increasing gold exposure. This is about protecting purchasing power – not chasing headlines. When the currency anchor shifts, portfolios need to adjust.
We’re Not in the 2010s Anymore
When I zoom out and look at 2025, I don’t see a crash. I see a transition. A reset.
The world is shifting from low rates, easy money, and one-size-fits-all globalization to something messier – but full of opportunity.
Here’s the mindset I’m carrying into the rest of this year:
Diversification isn’t optional – it’s essential. Not just across asset classes, but across regions, currencies, and narratives.
Gold, real assets, and smart sector positioning are my anchors. Portfolios built for the past won’t survive the future.
Most of all, I’m staying active. Passive strategies worked in a world of cheap money. But now? You’ve got to be nimble, informed, and bold.
This is the age of the macro investor. And this is our moment.