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AI Revolution – A Macro Investor’s Perspective

Dear Investors,

Let’s be real – AI is not slowing down. From self-driving cars to predictive finance, it’s taking over industries at a pace we’ve never seen before.

But there’s something no one talks about enough: AI’s energy addiction.

The sheer computational power behind AI is draining global energy grids, and this is just the beginning.

So, where do we turn? Nuclear energy. A sector that many dismissed as outdated is now making a major comeback, fueled by the relentless power demands of AI.

At the same time, Japan is shaping up to be one of the most overlooked investment opportunities, thanks to aggressive corporate reforms and investor-friendly policies.

As a global macro investor, I see the writing on the wall: the next decade will be shaped by nuclear power, AI infrastructure, and a Japanese equity resurgence.

Let’s break it down.

AI’s Energy Problem – Why Nuclear is the Only Solution

In just 10 years, AI could drive U.S. electricity demand up by 25%, a number we haven’t seen since the post-WWII industrial boom.

Here’s the problem: solar and wind aren’t enough. AI doesn’t sleep, and data centers need round-the-clock power.

That’s where nuclear energy comes in.

Tech giants are already making their move. Microsoft has committed $16 billion to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant, adding 835 megawatts to the grid – enough to power 750,000 homes.

Amazon has locked in 320 megawatts from small modular reactors (SMRs), while Google has secured 500 megawatts of nuclear power.

But why nuclear? Because SMRs are game-changers. Traditional reactors take over a decade and $30 billion to build.

SMRs, on the other hand, cost just $2 billion-$3 billion and can be operational in five years or less.

This is the energy revolution that no one is paying attention to.

China has already surpassed the U.S. in nuclear development, with costs nearly 50% lower.

The country has accelerated its nuclear expansion, completing reactors in five to seven years, while in the U.S., projects have been delayed by decades.

With over 24 new nuclear reactors planned in China by 2030, the U.S. risks falling behind in energy security if investments don’t catch up.

For investors, this is a generational wealth opportunity.

The nuclear industry is projected to attract $1.2 trillion in global investments over the next two decades.

That’s an entire economy being built around AI-driven energy demand.

Beyond the U.S. and China, Europe is also taking steps to reinvest in nuclear energy.

France, a country that generates over 70% of its power from nuclear, is planning six new reactors with additional ones under consideration.

The European Union is now including nuclear energy as part of its green taxonomy, further signaling a shift toward nuclear as a clean energy source.

Japan’s Investment – Why You Should Pay Attention

While the U.S. and Europe dominate the investment conversation, Japan is quietly setting up for a historic bull run.

Since 2024, companies in Japan’s TOPIX index have announced ¥18.6 trillion ($125 billion) in share buybacksnearly double the ¥10.4 trillion from the year before.

At the same time, dividend payouts have soared to ¥22 trillion, marking four consecutive years of increases.

For decades, Japanese companies were known for cash hoarding and inefficiency. But things have changed.

Companies are now shedding non-core assets, streamlining operations, and prioritizing shareholder returns.

One prime example? A major Japanese firm recently sold its entire real estate portfolio to focus on its core business.

That move alone is expected to skyrocket earnings growth and supercharge stock buybacks.

Despite all this, Japan remains undervalued. Foreign investment in Japan is at a decade-low, even as corporate earnings outperform the U.S. and Europe.

The disconnect is an opportunity.

Japan’s stock market has also experienced a paradigm shift, with more companies trading above book value than ever before.

This signals a shift in sentiment – investors are starting to recognize Japan’s potential, but the majority of global capital is still on the sidelines.

A major catalyst driving Japan’s equity resurgence is policy reform. The Tokyo Stock Exchange has pushed companies to improve capital efficiency, urging them to boost returns on equity (ROE) and shareholder payouts.

This kind of government-backed reform has led to a record number of corporate restructurings and buybacks.

With Japan’s stock market still trading at a discount compared to global peers, this is one of the most asymmetric risk-reward opportunities in today’s investment landscape.

The Infrastructure Boom – The Overlooked AI Winners

Everyone is chasing AI stocks, but the real money-makers might be hiding in infrastructure.

AI data centers are consuming power at unprecedented levels. In 2024, they accounted for 4.4% of total U.S. electricity consumption.

By 2028, that number is projected to hit 12%, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

The utilities sector – long seen as boring – is suddenly a powerhouse investment.

U.S. utility capital expenditures are expected to jump 26% by 2028, driven almost entirely by AI.

Companies that build electrical grids, power distribution networks, and transmission lines are set for massive growth.

Data centers now require up to 50% more cooling power compared to traditional facilities due to the intensity of AI model training.

Some data centers consume as much water as small cities, creating major opportunities in industrial cooling, HVAC, and water treatment sectors.

Global spending on data center infrastructure is forecasted to reach $500 billion by 2030, driven by hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, as they expand their AI cloud operations.

This is creating a booming demand for industrial real estate, power generation, and energy transmission networks.

Investors who recognize this shift – those who focus on the infrastructure behind AI, not just AI itself – will be the ones who win big.

The Next Big Wealth Wave is Here

AI isn’t just about smarter models and faster chips. It’s about energy, infrastructure, and global market shifts that most investors haven’t even noticed yet.

While the world races to build better AI, the real bottleneck is power – and nuclear energy is the only viable solution.

At the same time, Japan is emerging as an under-the-radar investment goldmine, with corporate transformations setting the stage for an equity resurgence.

And let’s not forget about the AI backbone – utilities, cooling, and data center infrastructure.

AI can’t function without massive electricity and cooling capacity, and that’s where some of the best opportunities lie.

So, where should investors focus? On the real forces driving the AI economy – energy, infrastructure, and undervalued global markets.

Get in early, and you’ll be ahead of the next big wealth wave.

This is where the future is headed. The only question is – are you paying attention?

Source:

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Alessandro, founder of Macro Mornings
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Alessandro

Founder and head of research. Every note here carries 1 name: the person who builds the model signs the view and answers the email when it's wrong. Weekly since 2022.

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